The future of quantum computing: Predictions for 2024

The field of quantum computing is expected to move from physical qubits to error-corrected logic qubits and increased global collaboration in quantum research in 2024, which will be a big year for the technology. Atom Computing's announcement of a 1,225-qubit quantum computer, almost three times larger than IBM's Osprey, which was the previous favourite, highlights that we are on the cusp of a new era in computing. The leap reinforces the potential for quantum computing to revolutionise industries such as pharmaceuticals and cybersecurity, enabling calculations of unimaginable complexity. However, it is increasingly believed that quantum computing will be driven by the quality of qubits rather than their quantity.

Quality of qubits over quantity

John Prisco believes that in 2024, the quantum computer market will see a shift away from an obsession with the concepts of quantum advantage and number of qubits. Instead, the industry will shift to fixing bugs and solving practical problems. "Quantum computing giants are expected to refocus their efforts on logical qubit counting, favouring qubit quality over quantity, which has dominated the debate so far. Unfortunately, while 2024 may not bring a decisive consolidation of quantum computer design modalities, this uncertainty calls into question the overall development and direction of the industry.

The quantum computer market will soon see one of the current modalities eliminated, meaning that 2024 will not bring a focus in development - a bad sign at a time when the industry is trying to move from high-profile feats to tangible impact on the real world. The transition from simply playing with numbers to persistently fixing bugs and building functional applications shows the maturity of the industry. This transition, while fraught with uncertainty, represents a critical juncture. As the industry struggles to translate theoretical possibilities into real-world applications, there is another looming challenge: the data security implications of quantum computing, particularly how hackers might use this nascent technology to store encrypted data today in order to decrypt it tomorrow.

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Hackers will store data for later decryption

Fred Rivaine, CTO of Dashlane, makes a timely warning that quantum technology is evolving very quickly and the need for quantum-resistant encryption methods is no longer optional. The looming threat of a quantum computer breaking existing encryption standards, such as RSA or ECC encryption algorithms, highlights that organisations of any size and in any industry need to assess where they may be at risk and move to post-quantum cryptography today.

With the rise of quantum computing and artificial intelligence-driven attacks, a new generation of cyber threats will emerge. Cybersecurity teams will be challenged to defend not only against malware and traditional hacks, but also against quantum attacks focused on "save now - decrypt later," adversary machine learning tactics and AI-driven social engineering schemes. This will require cybersecurity professionals to have a broader skill set and better defence tools and platforms.

Misconceptions about quantum computing

There are many misconceptions about quantum computing. Tony Attlee, President and COO of Quantinuum, is quick to point out that quantum computers will not be around in ten or fifteen years. Already we have quantum computers that can do things that classical computers can't do." Another misconception is that quantum computers will only do one thing. Attlee explained that while the development of quantum computing has been primarily focused on business applications, the technology has unwittingly become an accelerator for solving complex scientific problems.

For example, problems that are often the domain of organisations such as CERN and projects such as the Large Hadron Collider can now be solved in ways previously thought impossible. Human history teaches us that if you give amazing tools to brilliant people, they will find what to do with them. We are seeing this in real time. In essence, quantum computing has become a transformative tool that can make theoretical concepts tangible, offering a new lens through which we can understand the universe."

Which industries will be affected by quantum computing?

Financial services, large banks and trading companies are using quantum capabilities to optimise their portfolios and improve fraud detection. The pharmaceutical sector relies on quantum computing for efficient drug discovery. At the same time, sustainability-focused companies are exploring new material sciences, as evidenced by BMW and Airbus' work on hydrogen fuel cells.

Quantum computing also promises to revolutionise regulated industries, from healthcare to aviation, by bringing much-needed transparency and traceability to AI algorithms, mitigating the black-box problem of AI decision-making. However, the risks are as great as the benefits. One is data encryption, as algorithms like Shor's algorithm have shown that quantum computing can break existing encryption methods. This raises not only technical but also ethical concerns about how to utilise the technology for the benefit of society while ensuring security.

What is the future of quantum computing?

Quantum computing is not a futuristic concept, but a current reality with key milestones on the near horizon. One of the near-term milestones is reaching a level where quantum machines will routinely outperform even the world's most advanced supercomputers in simulation tasks, bringing us into an era where classical computing will become incapable of emulating quantum capabilities.

We will begin to see it embedded in places that affect our daily lives. We may never touch a quantum computer ourselves, but it could be an app you're working on in your mobile phone that goes to the other side of the world and does something using a quantum computer. Like the early stages of the Internet and classical computing, quantum computing will start with niche applications, but it will soon become ubiquitous, quietly affecting the tasks we perform on our everyday devices such as mobile phones.

Challenges for the future of quantum computing

As quantum capabilities grow, we face an urgent need to invest in error correction mechanisms and focus on the quality of qubits rather than simple numerical superiority. Ignoring these subtleties could lead to a dangerous future in which the power of quantum computing is under- or mis-utilised. The path ahead therefore requires a calculated, ethical and interdisciplinary approach in which technological prowess and normative foresight converge.

Conclusion

As we approach 2024, quantum computing could quickly lead to a tipping point that will affect us all. Imagine faster drug discoveries or crack-proof passwords. But there's another side of the coin: Today's online security systems can be easily hacked, and the technology is still raw, often expensive and difficult to use. As we move from the old world of computing into the exciting but unpredictable quantum era, business and government leaders must take a big leap forward and prepare for potential pitfalls. In short, quantum computing opens up a world of extraordinary possibilities, but it is a tool that we must learn to handle with care.